DECISIONS BEFORE 2030 — the full inventory (Phase C, one of this library's own project records)

The calendar spine (why the window is this term)

• Council/school-board/police-board members elected Oct 26, 2026 serve into late 2030 — the pre-2030 window and the term are the same years. [piece]
• Ontario's next fixed-date general election: June 2029 (four-year cycle from Feb 2025). ⚠️
• Federal fixed-date general election: October 2029 under the Canada Elections Act cycle from April 2025. ⚠️
• Four Toronto budget cycles (2027–2030) — every recurring item below lands in at least one. [piece]

1 · Artificial intelligence

• No AI-specific federal statute in force; national AI strategy (June 2026) routes rules through targeted bills. The binding decisions arrive lower down, sooner. [piece]
• Ontario public-sector digital-trust act in force; AI-specific regulations being written now. [piece]
• Toronto governs its own AI via corporate assessment framework + staff guidance (2025); police board pre-approval required for any high-risk AI system incl. facial recognition — each procurement is the decision. [piece]
• Problem rows locked in: H4, F2, A1, G1, PR-X01.

2 · Surveillance

• Plate readers already on hundreds of TPS vehicles, >1M plates/day, under board-written, board-revisable policy; surveillance infrastructure once installed is nearly never uninstalled — the tolerance window is pre-purchase, i.e. this term. [piece]
• Problem rows: A1, F2, H4.

3 · Data

• Federal privacy-modernization bill tabled June 2026, before Parliament now (children's data, surveillance-based pricing). [piece]
• Open banking law (March 2026), first phase rolling out 2026. [piece]
• No national digital ID (Ottawa, Jan 2026) → identity question devolves to provinces/cities/ vendors via procurement, signed inside the next four budget cycles. [piece]
• Problem rows: F2, H3 (school data), H4, J1; surveillance-pricing overlap → the standing surveillance_pricing_toronto project (council item 2026.EX33.33).

4 · Climate lock-in

• Committed-emissions arithmetic + ~40%-this-decade global cut window. [piece]
• TransformTO: net zero 2040, −65% vs 1990 by 2030 interim target (council-adopted, CL-140950); 2026–2030 action plan adopted late 2025 — the elected council funds the path or doesn't, four times. [piece]
• FAO: unadapted climate hazards add $4.1B/yr avg to ON infrastructure costs; proactive adaptation $3.0B/yr — the adapt-or-don't spread is itself a scheduled budget decision, every year of the term (CL-90815/90817).
• Problem rows: E2, F4, B1/B5 (corridors), H10, G3.

5 · Housing & homelessness (new domain this expansion)

• Ontario's 1.5M-homes-by-2031 target is missing its pace publicly: starts 89.3k → 74.6k → 65.4k (2023–25) vs 150k/yr needed; province projects 64.8k for 2026. Whether the gap gets policy response — DC reform, zoning, funding — is decided inside this term, or the target dies by arithmetic. ⚠️
• HSCIS shelter capital plan: 13 of 20 sites funded, $166.9M unfunded gap — closed or not in this term's budgets (CL-120114).
• Federal refugee-response funding to Toronto already cut ~68% for 2026 (CL-120035) — the replacement-or-absorption decision is a live budget line all four cycles.
• Problem rows: C1, C2, C4, E4, I1/I2.

6 · Safety & freedom

• Encampment policy, shelter standards, by-name accountability — decided in this term's budgets; compounds annually. [piece]
• Protest/public-space/emergency-powers norms moving fast everywhere. [piece]
• Non-police crisis response: TCCS is now the fourth emergency service, citywide since July 2024 — its funding trajectory each budget cycle decides whether the model consolidates or retrenches. ⚠️
• Problem rows: C2, A1, H1, H7, H8.

7 · Health & care systems (new domain this expansion)

• Primary care: OCFP-projected 4.4M Ontarians without a family doctor by 2026 (recent estimate ~2.5M) — provincial team-based-care funding decisions land inside the window. ⚠️
• Child care: CWELCC funding trajectory already stepped $3.86B (2023) → $5.24B (2024-25) combined ON+federal (CL-80163/80172); the space-expansion and workforce decisions that determine whether waitlists (31% of 0–5 parents, CL-0299) clear are this window's.
• LTC/aging: ON 65+ heading 2.8M → 4.4M by 2045 (CL-80041) — capacity built or not built before 2030 sets the 2030s.
• Problem rows: PR-X04, C6, E3, A4, H1.

8 · What this inventory is not (unchanged law)

Not a doom prediction, not "one election decides everything" — an inventory of scheduled decisions, each with a receipt, each mapped to who sits in the chair when it lands. The piece's own closing frame stands: the decade is being steered; the question is from where.

Residuals (honest)

⚠️ items above need the standard verify pass before any of this reaches a page (the piece's own OPEN-AFTER-FIX precedent). Not yet inventoried, flagged for a future pass: Metrolinx line-opening schedule as lock-in items; provincial energy procurement calendar (IESO); school-board supervision decisions; municipal digital-ID/procurement specifics beyond the federal devolution fact.

Source tags like (homes HM12) mark questions carried from the project's own question banks (QUESTION_HARVEST.csv); untagged questions were raised in the 2026-08-11 rewrite.

How to read the receipts on this page. [piece] = carried over from an earlier, independently checked piece · a CL- key (for example CL-50000) = checked against the primary source and recorded in our claims register · ⚠️ = search-sourced, not independently re-checked yet. This is an inventory of decisions actually scheduled — legislatively, contractually, budgetarily — inside the 2026–2030 council term, mapped to the problems each one locks in.