Fact Sheet
THE CRISIS IN NUMBERS
Toronto
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| People experiencing homelessness (Oct 2024) | 15,418 | 2024 SNA ✅ |
| People experiencing homelessness (Oct 2025) | ~12,180 (−21%) | City SNA page Apr 2026 ✅ |
| Nightly shelter system users (2024 average) | 9,700 | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| People in emergency shelter (Oct 2024) | 9,026 | 2024 SNA ✅ |
| People sleeping outdoors (Oct 2024) | 1,446 | 2024 SNA ✅ |
| Unique individuals served in 2024 | 24,200 | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| Of those: refugee claimants | 12,600+ (52%) | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| Housing exits in 2023 | 5,927 | TSSS 2026 Budget Notes ✅ |
| Housing exits in 2024 | 4,344 (−26.7%) | TSSS 2026 Budget Notes ✅ |
| Chronically homeless | 78% of shelter users | 2024 SNA ✅ |
| Black representation | 58% of shelter / 10% of city | 2024 SNA ✅ |
| Indigenous (outdoor) | 31% of outdoor / 3% of city | 2024 SNA ✅ |
| Social housing (RGI) waiting list | 105,115 active applications (households) | City Social Housing Waiting List Reports, 2025 year-end ✅ (updated July 4, 2026 from "100,500+" to the current primary figure) |
| Average wait for seniors RGI studio | ~10 years | Meta Task G / TSHC data ✅ |
Ontario
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total experiencing homelessness (2025) | 84,973 | AMO/HelpSeeker Jan 2026 ✅ |
| Year-over-year increase | +7.8% | Same ✅ |
| Increase since 2021 | +49.1% | Same ✅ |
| Chronic homelessness (2025) | ~42,000+ | Same ✅ |
| Northern Ontario increase since 2016 | +204% (1,771 → 5,377) | Same ✅ |
THE MONEY IN NUMBERS
The shelter system
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| TSSS gross budget 2025 | $897.957M | Budget Committee Jan 2025 ✅ |
| TSSS actual operating 2024 | $796.40M | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| Federal IHAP contribution 2024 | $261.87M (33%) | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| Federal IHAP contribution 2026 | $97M | TSSS 2026 Budget Notes ✅ |
| IHAP cliff (year-over-year drop) | −$164.87M | Arithmetic ✅ |
| City tax base share 2024 | $194.74M (24%) | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| Provincial contribution 2024 | $314.76M (HPP + New Deal) | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| Emergency shelter spending 2024 | $471.79M (59%) | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
| Refugee claimant response 2024 | $290.31M (36%) | TSSS 2024 Annual Report ✅ |
The cost comparison
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Shelter cost per person per night | $136 | Toronto AG Feb 2025 ✅ |
| Shelter cost per person per year | $49,640 | Same (×365) ✅ |
| Housing First net cost per year | $6,311 | Latimer et al. 2020 (DOI) ✅ |
| Annual saving per person housed vs sheltered | $43,329 | Arithmetic ✅ |
| Societal cost of homelessness per person per year (Toronto-specific) | $58,972 (2017 CAD) | Latimer et al. 2017 (DOI) — corrected, was Vancouver figure ✅ |
| Cost to halve chronic homelessness nationally (extra/yr) | $3.5B additional | PBO May 2024 ✅ |
| Cost for Ontario to end chronic homelessness (10 yrs) | $11B over 10 years | AMO/HelpSeeker 2025 ✅ |
THE POLICY FAILURES IN NUMBERS
Ontario government record
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| OW single adult rate (frozen since 2018) | $733/month | Ontario Reg 134/98 ✅ |
| OW/ODSP shelter allowance lost the moment someone becomes homeless (Added July 2026) | $390/month (OW); $582/month (ODSP) | Ontario Works Policy Directive 6.1; The Trillium, Sept 2024 ✅ |
| OW as % of full-time minimum-wage income (1990) | ~70% | Feed Ontario 2019 ✅ |
| OW as % of full-time minimum-wage income | about a quarter (26%, 2025, sourced) — do not cite the unhedged "~24%" internal calculation, corrected July 5 2026 per MAIN_AUDIT_001 | OW Reg + Open Policy Ontario, CL-613 ✅ |
| OW for tent-dwellers (no rent proof) | ~$343/month | Ontario Works Policy Directive 6.1 (ontario.ca/document/ontario-works-policy-directives/61-calculating-assistance) ✅ |
| AG 2021 recs with "little or no progress" (2023) | 40% | AG 2023 follow-up ✅ |
| Years since AG called for provincial strategy | 5 years (2021→2026) | AG 2021 ✅ |
| HART Hubs: supportive homes created | 375 (AMO verdict: "insufficient") | AMO/HelpSeeker 2025 ✅ |
| Opioid overdose calls after SCS closures | ~+119% (Apr 2025→Jan 2026) | CBC/ambulance data ✅ |
| Bill 28 (Housing First strategy bill): result | Voted down by Ford Nov 2025 | OLA Bill 28 ✅ |
| HPP annual funding to service managers | ~$700M (HPP + ISHP) | Ontario Budget 2023 ✅ |
| COHB suspension | April–October 2024 | City budget documents ✅ |
City of Toronto record
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| HSCIS sites committed (Nov 2023) | 20 by 2033 | EC7.7 ✅ |
| HSCIS sites acquired / capital-funded | 11 acquired; 13 of 20 funded ($507.6M) | TSSS 2026 Budget ✅ |
| HSCIS sites currently open | 0 | TSSS 2026 Budget ✅ |
| First HSCIS site opening | 2027 | PH23.3 ✅ |
| HSCIS total budget | $674.5M | EC7.7 ✅ |
| HSCIS funded in Capital Budget (2026) | $507.6M | ⚠️ Not independently re-verified this pass — likely source is the 2026 TSSS Budget Notes (https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2026/bu/bgrd/backgroundfile-261532.pdf), which this library has independently confirmed elsewhere for other HSCIS figures, but this specific dollar amount was not re-traced to a page this pass. Flagged, not fabricated-fixed. |
| HousingTO: homes approved (end 2024) | 29,744 of 65,000 (46%) | HousingTO Progress 2025 ✅ |
| HousingTO: completions in 2024 | 632 | Same ✅ |
| GSR (George Street Revitalization) total cost | $610.9M (Phase 1) | backgroundfile-254196 ✅ |
| GSR Phase 1 occupancy | 2029 | Same ✅ |
| Strategic Plan: council approval | Extended to 2027 | TSSS 2026 Budget; City webpage ✅ |
| Sector verdict on services | 6% better / 66% worse | What We Heard April 2025 ✅ |
HEALTH AND HUMAN COST
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ED visits: homeless vs low-income housed controls | 8.48× | Hwang et al. 2013 (DOI) ✅ |
| Total public healthcare cost per homeless person (Toronto, 2022) | $12,209/yr (6.9× vs housed $1,769) | ICES/Homeless Hub 2024 ✅ |
| Average hospitalization cost for homeless patients (Canada) | $16,785 (vs $7,803 average; 2.1×) | CIHI 2022-23 ✅ |
| Homeless patients admitted via emergency department | 93% of hospitalizations | CIHI 2022-23 ✅ |
| Estimated excess Toronto healthcare cost of homelessness | $69.8M–$99.7M/year | ICES 2024 ✅ |
| Mortality: homeless vs lowest income quintile | 3.5× | Hwang et al. 2009 (DOI) ✅ |
| Mental health calls to TPS (2022) | 33,000+ | TPS website ✅ |
| TCCS calls without police | 78% | Social Planning Toronto 2026 ✅ |
| At Home/Chez Soi: stable housing at 2 years (HF), pooled across 4 cities incl. Toronto | 73% vs 32% usual care | Stergiopoulos et al. 2015 ✅ |
| HF4Y systematic review (not RCT) | "Can improve housing security, more research needed" | Woodhall-Melnik 2025 ✅ corrected |
THE TRUE COST IS HIGHER THAN $897.957M (Added July 2026)
TSSS's budget alone is not the full public cost of this crisis.
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| TTC "safety, security and wellbeing" spending (2026) | $26.2M | TTC 2026 Budget Presentation ✅ |
| TTC's own itemized 2023 homelessness-response spending | $4.4M (27 Special Constables, 10 outreach workers, cleaning) | TTC/TTCriders budget analysis ✅ |
| Subway delays from "external factors" incl. disorderly patrons/unauthorized track access (month examined) | 51% | The Local, citing TTC data ✅ |
| TTC's own funding cliff: 2027 shortfall without New Deal renewal | $379M ($145M in 2028) | Toronto Life/TorontoToday, Jan 2026 ✅ |
| Toronto Public Library Social & Crisis Support Services: people assisted (by Sept 2025) | 8,000+ | CBC News ✅ |
| TPL program funding, 2026 onward (was $0.565M philanthropic pilot) | $1.13M/year, now City-funded | TPL 2025 Budget Notes ✅ |
| Parks, Forestry and Recreation federal encampment funding (2025) | $3.698M | PFR 2025 Budget Notes ✅ |
| Combined TTC + TPL + PFR spending sitting outside the $897.957M TSSS figure | at least $31M/year, likely more | HMK-035 ✅ |
The workforce behind the system
| Fact | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| StatCan's official "homelessness support sector" count, Toronto CMA (2021) | 1,580 workers | Statistics Canada ✅ |
| TSSS's own approved staff complement (2025) | 1,497.5 positions | TSSS 2025 Budget Notes ✅ |
| Defensible floor for people directly employed in Toronto's homelessness response | at least 3,077 | HMK-037 (StatCan count + TSSS staff, confirmed non-overlapping) ✅ |
| National median employment income, homelessness support sector (2020) | $34,000 | Statistics Canada ✅ |
| Sector poverty rate vs. all-worker average | 6.7% vs 6.0% | Statistics Canada ✅ |
| Shelter security guard wages (real Toronto job postings) | ~$18.15/hour | HMK-037 ✅ |
| Shelter food service worker starting wages (real Toronto job postings) | ~$17.70/hour | HMK-037 ✅ |
WHAT REF_002_Sources ARE NOT IN THIS DOCUMENT
The following frequently-cited claims are NOT on this fact sheet because they could not be independently verified: - "8.1× ambulance utilization" — source document (backgroundfile-236945.pdf) returns 404; REMOVED - "$48M TPS mental health cost" — not a TPS primary figure; REMOVED - "60% of encampment residents relocated within 500m" — no primary source found; REMOVED - "288% overdose increase" — unverified NDP claim; replaced with confirmed ~119% ambulance data (Apr 2025→Jan 2026) — corrected July 2026; this document previously and incorrectly stated "82%" here while separately, correctly citing 119% elsewhere on this same page. That direct internal contradiction is exactly the kind of error a hostile fact-check would find first — fixed.
Full source compendium: MAIN_REF_002_Sources.md | Claim ledger: MAIN_DATA_001_Claim_Ledger.csv