FROZEN EDITION — July 2026. This page is part of the v1 Toronto homelessness research library, a complete, sealed project frozen at its July 2026 figures (92% of its 770 claims individually verified against primary sources). It is a product of its July-2026 campaign context, published as a citable historical artifact. Where our newer research disagrees, a dated margin note points at the living page — the frozen text is never silently rewritten. Why there are two editions.

Volunteer Quick Reference Card

THE THREE NUMBERS

Document ID: MAIN-DERIV-013

Number What It Means
$136/night What Toronto pays per shelter bed. That's $49,640/year.
$6,311/year What Housing First actually costs (net, after offsets).
40% Ontario AG's own finding: 40% of their homelessness recommendations = "little or no progress" — 5 years later.

THE ONE-MINUTE DOOR SCRIPT

"Hi — I'm with the Regenerative Toronto campaign. We're holding local candidates accountable on homelessness ahead of October's election.

One quick thing: Toronto spends $136 a night keeping someone in a shelter. That's $49,000 a year. Actual housing support — Housing First — costs about $6,000 a year. The math has been clear for years. And the province's own Auditor General said in 2021 they need a strategy to fix this. It's now 2026, and there still isn't one.

We're asking every candidate in this ward one simple question: what will you actually do? We're publishing their answers publicly, including who didn't answer.

Can I leave you this card? And would you be willing to sign our open letter to the candidates?"


IF THEY PUSH BACK

"But the count went down 21% in 2025!" "That's true — mostly because fewer refugee claimants are in the shelter system now. That's a federal immigration change, not a housing fix. Province-wide homelessness still went up 7.8%. And the system is still at capacity every night."

"Ford is investing $700M in homelessness." "The money exists, but the Auditor General says there's no strategy, no targets, and no timeline. They've been saying that since 2021. You can't invest your way to results without a plan."

"HART Hubs are helping." "They provide treatment — that's important. But they don't guarantee housing. The province's own municipal sector research says the housing component is insufficient. And there's been no independent evaluation of outcomes."

"This is a City problem, not a Province problem." "The Province froze Ontario Works at $733/month since 2018. The Province suspended the housing benefit for 7 months in 2024. Toronto's shelter-to-housing exits fell 26.7% that year (5,927 → 4,344, 1,583 fewer people housed). When the Province acts, the system responds — in both directions."


FIVE FACTS, FIVE SECONDS EACH

  1. $136 vs $6,311. The shelter costs 8× more than Housing First.
  2. 5 years. No strategy. The Auditor General asked for one in 2021.
  3. 7 months. 1,583 people. When Ford suspended COHB, that many fewer people got housed (26.7% drop, 5,927 → 4,344 shelter-to-housing exits in 2024).
  4. About a quarter (26%, sourced). OW is now about a quarter of minimum-wage income. In 1990 it was roughly 70-75% — the 1995 Harris cut started the slide, Ford froze it at 2018 levels. (Corrected July 5, 2026 — retired the unhedged "~24%" figure per MAIN_AUDIT_001.)
  5. 6%. Only 6% of the City's own survey said homelessness services have improved. 66% said worse.

YOUR WARD AND THE LOCAL ANGLE

If you're in... The local story is...
Ward 9 Davenport A new youth shelter is coming to 1615 Dufferin St (2027). Ask candidates: have they supported it publicly?
Ward 20 Scarborough SW New shelter at 2535 Gerrard St E (2027). Ask: is the ward councillor speeding this up or creating delays?
Ward 2 Etobicoke Centre New women's shelter at 3838 Bloor St W (2029). Ask: why is this one last?
Ward 18 Willowdale Indigenous women's shelter at 68 Sheppard Ave W (2028-30). Ask: is there community support in place?
Any other ward Ask: why isn't there a confirmed HSCIS shelter site in our ward? The City has 11 sites acquired and 13 funded — where are the rest?

THE ASK (pick one)

Sign our open letter to council candidates demanding they answer our 11 questions publicly

Share the Five Facts card on social media with #FordFiles #UnfckOntario

Come to a deputation — we'll train you and give you the talking points

Host a house party — we'll bring the research, you bring your neighbours


All facts sourced. Full library at regenerativetoronto.ca (domain TBC) | "The record is not a political opinion. It belongs to everyone." ⚠️ Every statistic on this card has a primary source. If challenged, direct people to the Regenerative Toronto research library.

Frozen v1 edition (July 2026) · published 2026-08-17 · corrections to the living library are welcome — tell us where we’re wrong.