REGENERATIVE TORONTO — WARD-LEVEL ACCOUNTABILITY TRACKER

Municipal Election October 26, 2026 | The Campaign for a Regenerative Ontario

Document ID: MAIN-DERIV-008 Date: June 30, 2026 Purpose: Hold every City Councillor accountable on homelessness — by ward, by vote, by outcome Source data: 2024 Toronto SNA (outdoor homelessness by district); HSCIS site approvals; TSSS data Use: Candidate questionnaires, door-knocking, ward-level media pitches, social media accountability

PART 1: THE HSCIS WARD MAP — WHERE ARE THE NEW SHELTERS?

As of June 2026, seven HSCIS shelter sites have been confirmed through planning/zoning approvals. Zero are yet open. The first openings are projected for 2027. Each site represents a Council vote in November 2023 (EC7.7) — and in some cases, subsequent site-specific ward votes.

⚠️ Councillor names require verification against current 2026 officeholders — please confirm before publication.

66 Third St. is under active litigation (added July 2026): the New Toronto Initiative — a civic advocacy organization — is suing the City and Councillor Amber Morley specifically over this site. Housing advocates argue litigation like this significantly delays already-strained shelter projects. This directly connects to a separately-flagged HMK-038 lead: an unverified claim that per-bed capital costs at this specific site may run as high as $675,000 (vs. the $421,875 HSCIS average) due to a reduced 50-bed capacity on a smaller lot. Worth pursuing together: if the litigation is driving redesign/delay costs specifically, that's a concrete, attributable accountability story connecting a named councillor's ward, a specific lawsuit, and a specific cost overrun — stronger than either thread alone. Not yet fully verified as a connected causal story; currently two independently-sourced facts about the same site.

The accountability question for every councillor in these 7 wards:

"Your ward has been selected for a new purpose-built shelter that will serve [population] by [year]. Have you publicly supported this site? Have you engaged your constituents in support of its opening? Have you taken any action that would delay or block it?"

The accountability question for all other councillors:

"The City has committed to 20 new shelter sites. 11 have been acquired; only 7 have confirmed addresses. Why is your ward absent from the HSCIS implementation, and what have you done to support sites in neighbouring wards?"

PART 2: OUTDOOR HOMELESSNESS BY COMMUNITY COUNCIL DISTRICT (2024 SNA)

The 2024 SNA counted 1,615 people living outdoors (including in encampments) on October 23, 2024 (corrected July 4, 2026 — a previously-cited "1,446/646" sub-breakdown summed to 2,092, not 1,615, and could not be confirmed for this specific count). By the October 2025 count, outdoor homelessness had shifted geographically — the proportion in Etobicoke-York doubled and North York doubled — but total outdoor homelessness decreased slightly.

⚠️ Exact ward-level counts from SNA Table 4 are available in the full SNA PDF: https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/9790-street-needs-assessment-report-2024.pdf Extract Table 4 for specific ward/CCD figures before publication.

FOI opportunity: The TSSS By-Name List should contain individual-level data mapping to ward. Request ward-level breakdowns through the Shelter System Flow Data Dashboard or via MFIPPA request to TSSS.

CONFIRMED VOTING RECORDS — HSCIS SITE WARD COUNCILLORS

Sources: City of Toronto official council voting records; CBC Toronto; TorontoToday; Progress Toronto ✅

The key accountability question for mixed-record councillors:

"You voted to build new shelters in November 2023 (EC7.7) but then voted against the shelter site in your ward in July 2025 (PH23.3). How do you plan to build 20 new shelters if local councillors vote against every site that's in or near their ward?"

NEW, July 2, 2026 — Task H results reviewed: 2 more confirmed facts, 1 severe fabrication caught, most of the rest flagged unverified

Seven external research submissions were received for Task H (political accountability mapping). Given this task was explicitly flagged in advance as "the hardest to search well... treat it as a check and report back honestly, not a guaranteed win," every submission was checked individually rather than merged. That caution was warranted.

Two more facts independently confirmed and added to this library's verified record:

• May 12, 2023, Item 2023.EC3.13: Council declared homelessness an emergency, 24-1, with Stephen Holyday (Ward 2, Etobicoke Centre) as the sole dissenting vote. ✅ [Direct primary confirmation across multiple independent sources: City of Toronto's own press release, Globe and Mail, CBC, CTV, and the official TMMIS item page: https://secure.toronto.ca/council/agenda-item.do?item=2023.EC3.13] This is Holyday's third confirmed "No" vote in this library's record (alongside EC7.7 and EC13.8 above), strengthening an already-consistent pattern rather than introducing a new one.
• Chris Moise (Ward 13, Toronto Centre) received $10,800 of $91,695.25 (11.8%) in 2022 campaign contributions from Fitzrovia Real Estate's CEO, a family member, and senior company leadership — none of whom lived in his ward. ✅ [CBC News direct investigation, Sept 17, 2024: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-election-donations-fitzrovia-chris-moise-1.7324548] Moise subsequently supported a specific Fitzrovia development (191-201 Sherbourne Street) that Council approved. A genuine, well-documented donor-to-vote pattern — the clearest single finding across all seven submissions.
• ACORN Canada's "Who Controls Toronto? People or Developers?" (2018 election cycle) is a real report, independently confirmed: 34% ($1,374,725 of ~$4.07M) of donations to winning 2018 candidates came from development-industry-tied donors, with per-councillor breakdowns including Ana Bailão at 42% and Paul Ainslie at 21% — both figures matching what the primary report itself states. ✅ [Direct primary source: https://acorncanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Who-Controls-Toronto-People-or-Developer-0.pdf] Use with the important caveat every submission correctly noted: this is 2018-cycle data, current councillors elected since 2018 are not covered, and no comparable 2022-cycle analysis exists.

A severe, confirmed fabrication in one submission — do not use any content from it. One submission (a formatted PDF report, "Mapping Toronto's Housing Crisis") has a wrong ward-councillor map throughout: it lists Stephen Holyday as "Ward 7, Richmond-Steeles" (he is Ward 2, Etobicoke Centre) and Frances Nunziata as "Ward 4, Allenby-Danforth" (she is Ward 5, York South-Weston) — neither "Richmond-Steeles" nor "Allenby-Danforth" are real Toronto ward names. ✅ [Confirmed against Wikipedia's direct account of the 2022-2026 council term, itself citing the ceremonial first session: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_City_Council_2022%E2%80%932026] The same submission presents Ana Bailão and Mike Layton — both of whom left council before the 2022 election — and a Joe Mihevc petition from 2017, predating the current council structure entirely, as if describing current councillors. Its voting table is otherwise almost entirely "information not available." This submission's data should not be used for anything — not the ward map, not the vote claims, not the framework discussion built on top of them — without independent reconstruction from scratch.

Everything else — the bulk of what the other five submissions reported — remains cross-report-consistent but not independently verified by this library, and should be treated accordingly. This is now down to one item: the full council-wide developer-donation and declared-interest picture, which every submission agrees requires direct PDF-by-PDF review of individual 2022 financial disclosures that no submission actually completed. This should not be cited as confirmed fact in any public-facing document until independently checked — see the new fleet task below.

A third item is now resolved, July 2, 2026 (Fleet Task P, attempted directly) — completing Task P. The July 23-24, 2025 PH23.3 final adoption tally is confirmed as 22-3, resolving the earlier "19-23 vs. 22-3" ambiguity in favour of 22-3. ✅ [Progress Toronto, live-tweeted contemporaneously as the vote happened: "the shelter item as amended CARRIES 22-3. All six sites will go forward," https://x.com/progresstoronto/status/1948461869750256049] The vote itself was procedurally complex, not a single up-or-down count — Speaker Nunziata ruled, following points of order from Councillors Perruzza, Perks, and Holyday, that recommendations be voted on separately in most cases but grouped for some (Recommendations 1-2 together, 8-9 together); Councillor Holyday's Motion 2 (a report-back request touching the shelter by-law) was ruled in order; Councillor Bradford's Motion 4 (a deferral request) was initially challenged as out of order and Bradford was permitted to revise it rather than have it struck. ✅ [City of Toronto, direct primary source, full procedural record: https://secure.toronto.ca/council/agenda-item.do?item=2025.PH23.3] A specific, striking accountability finding surfaced in the same sourcing, worth its own line rather than a false consistency claim: Progress Toronto's own vote tracker states plainly that Councillor Brad Bradford "voted against every single" one of the six individual shelter sites. This has since been added to the confirmed table above (Brad Bradford, W19 Beaches-East York row) — checked directly, July 2, 2026, rather than left as a standing to-do that could go stale.

A second item from this list is now resolved, July 2, 2026 (Fleet Task P, attempted directly). The February 8, 2023 warming-centre vote is fully confirmed: Council voted 15-11 to reject the Board of Health's recommendation for 24/7 warming centres through mid-April and a formal homelessness public-health-crisis declaration, instead adopting Councillor Michael Thompson's amended motion — directing staff to study 24/7 feasibility and calling on the provincial and federal governments for more support. ✅ [Confirmed across six independent sources: CBC (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/warming-centre-rejects-motion-1.6741544), NOW Toronto, CTV, Global News, Beach Metro Community News, and the Canadian Press wire] Mayor John Tory voted with Thompson's motion. Alejandra Bravo's own contemporaneous tweet gives a precise partial breakdown — "14 Councillors & Mayor voted against [the Board of Health recommendation]... 11 of us voted for action" — with Bravo, Ausma Malik, and Gord Perks named directly as among the 11 who wanted the stronger 24/7 response. Two real, additional data points surfaced in the same sourcing, not yet checked against this library's own figures: the cost of 24/7 warming centre operation was stated at Council as approximately $400,000/month per centre; and a comparative funding figure was presented at the same meeting — $457M City of Toronto spending on the housing crisis in 2022, against $97M provincial and $72M federal in the same year. Both are flagged for cross-reference against HMK-008/HMK-034's existing figures in a future pass, not yet reconciled here.

One item from this list is now resolved, July 2, 2026 (Fleet Task P, attempted directly). The December 2024 "Policy Framework - City Response to Demonstrations" vote (CC24.2, adopted 17-5) is confirmed NOT homelessness or encampment-relevant — it concerns the City's response to hate-motivated demonstrations targeting religious and cultural institutions, including a "bubble zone" bylaw (adopted May 2025) protecting "vulnerable institutions such as places of worship, faith-based schools, and cultural institutions" from intimidating protest activity, and a $2.5M grant program for hostile-vehicle-mitigation infrastructure at such sites. ✅ [Direct primary source, the City's own agenda item and report: https://secure.toronto.ca/council/agenda-item.do?item=2024.CC24.2 ; https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2024/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-251523.pdf] This was exactly the category-error risk flagged when this item was first noted — real, confirmed here, and worth stating plainly: this specific vote should never be cited anywhere in this library as evidence of a councillor's position on homelessness, shelters, or encampments. One of the external submissions reviewed for Task H built substantial analysis around this vote as if it were homelessness-relevant (its "17-5" tally and named voting blocs); that analysis should be disregarded on this specific point even though the vote count itself was accurately transcribed — the error was in relevance, not arithmetic.

PART 3: CANDIDATE QUESTIONNAIRE — 11 BINARY QUESTIONS

For every Council candidate in October 2026. Publish every response publicly. Call out non-responses publicly.

Q1 — Housing First mandate: "Will you support a City Council motion formally designating the 2025-2030 Strategic Plan's commitment to Housing First as mandatory for all shelter operators under Purchase of Service contracts?"

Q2 — HSCIS speed: "The City has 11 shelter sites acquired but zero open. Will you commit to voting for every zoning approval, community consultation approval, and budget item needed to open all 11 sites by 2028?"

Q3 — COHB advocacy: "Will you support a City Council motion formally demanding the Province of Ontario restore COHB to its 2023 level and make it permanent, and will you write personally to your local MPP demanding this?"

Q4 — Outcome-based contracting: "Will you support requiring all shelter operators to sign outcome-based contracts that tie annual contract renewal to verified housing exit rates?"

Q5 — OW/ODSP advocacy: "Will you support a formal City Council resolution calling on the Province to raise Ontario Works rates to match the actual cost of a room in Toronto and eliminate the shelter allowance deduction for people without fixed addresses?"

Q6 — HSCIS funding: "Will you vote to fully fund all 20 HSCIS shelter sites from the City Building Fund if the federal government does not commit to the $674.5M request by December 2026?"

Q7 — Bill 28 support: "The Homelessness Ends with Housing Act was passed by the Ontario Legislature but defeated by the Ford government. Will you commit to lobbying your local MPP and the Premier directly to pass equivalent legislation?"

Q8 — Operator accountability: "Will you support a City audit of all major shelter operators' housing exit rates, financial surpluses, and CRA T3010 data, with public reporting of results?"

Q9 — TAEH backbone: "Will you support a City Council resolution formally designating the Toronto Alliance to End Homelessness as the system backbone/convener for all homelessness programming, modelled on Houston's Coalition for the Homeless designation?"

Q10 — War on encampments vs. housing: "The Safer Municipalities Act allows fines of up to $10,000 for living in a tent on public land. Suspected opioid overdose calls increased approximately 119% after supervised consumption site closures. Will you commit to no encampment clearances without guaranteed housing alternatives?"

Q11 — The true cost, made visible (Added July 2026): "TSSS's $897.957M budget doesn't capture the full public cost — the TTC alone spent $26.2M in 2026 on homelessness-adjacent 'safety and wellbeing' spending, sitting entirely outside that figure. Will you direct the City Manager to produce an annual consolidated report combining TSSS's, the TTC's, and the Toronto Public Library's homelessness-specific spending, so Council and the public see the real total?"

PART 4: KEY VOTES TO TRACK

Methodology: Pull recorded votes from toronto.ca/council for each item above. Cross-reference with which councillors represent wards with HSCIS sites or high outdoor homelessness. Publish "alignment scores."

MM34.4, fully confirmed (added July 2026, via direct TMMIS retrieval — this is the model for how every other row in this table should eventually look)

November 13, 2025 — "Protecting Playgrounds and Parks," moved by Brad Bradford, seconded by Jon Burnside. Final result: 16-3 (7 absent), limiting encampment residents within 50m of a school/daycare/playground to a maximum of 3 shelter offers before removal.

• Voted Yes: Brad Bradford, Jon Burnside, Lily Cheng, Rachel Chernos Lin, Vincent Crisanti, Paula Fletcher, Stephen Holyday, Parthi Kandavel, Nick Mantas, Josh Matlow, Amber Morley, Jamaal Myers, Frances Nunziata (Chair), Anthony Perruzza, Dianne Saxe, Neethan Shan
• Voted No: Paul Ainslie, Chris Moise, Gord Perks
• Absent: Alejandra Bravo, Shelley Carroll, Olivia Chow, Mike Colle, Ausma Malik, James Pasternak, Michael Thompson

Accountability angles specific to this vote: - Amber Morley voted Yes on limiting shelter offers before encampment removal — while her own ward (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) is the site of the 66 Third St. seniors' shelter (Part 1, above) that the New Toronto Initiative is separately suing the City and Morley over. Worth asking directly: does supporting encampment removal near schools square with the delay on her own ward's shelter project? - Mayor Chow was absent for the decisive final vote (present earlier the same evening for a procedural vote on the same item). A fair, non-speculative accountability question: why was the Mayor not present to vote on final passage of a motion that visibly challenged her administration's outreach-first encampment approach? - Bradford (declared mayoral candidate) voted No on the actual amendment that became policy — he wanted a stronger 200m/48hr version, was outvoted 14-5 on the amendment, then voted Yes on final passage of the weaker version anyway. The accurate characterization of his position is "pushed for something stronger and voted for the compromise," not simply "voted to limit shelter offers" — precision matters given his mayoral candidacy.

[Source: Toronto City Council TMMIS, agenda item 2025.MM34.4, https://secure.toronto.ca/council/agenda-item.do?item=2025.MM34.4] ✅

PART 5: HOW TO USE THIS IN THE 2026 CAMPAIGN

For journalists: "Here's a story: Seven wards have new shelters coming. We've mapped the vote history and public statements of every councillor in those wards. Three have publicly objected to their sites. Here's the record."

For door-knocking: At every door in a HSCIS ward: "Did you know a new [youth/seniors/women's] shelter is coming to [address] in your ward? It will house [X] people currently sleeping in hotels at $136/night of your tax dollars. Your incumbent councillor [supported/hasn't said]. Here's their record."

For social media: "Councillor [X] represents a ward where [Y] people were counted sleeping outdoors last October. There is no HSCIS shelter site in their ward. We asked them what they're doing about it. [No response/Here's what they said]."

For deputation: "This Council voted 22-1 for 20 new shelters in November 2023. It's June 2026. Zero are open. The first one opens next year. Is this the pace of a City that takes homelessness seriously?"

MAIN-DERIV-008 | Version 1.0 | June 30, 2026 | The Campaign for a Regenerative Ontario ⚠️ Verify councillor names before publication — ward boundaries and councillors change