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What this is. The public render of our research briefing for this by-election: how the seat came open, the riding, every candidate in their own published words, the survey record, and how to vote. Every fact was read from the sources linked beside it on August 14, 2026. The ballot is final. Elections Canada issued the confirmed list of candidates on August 12, 2026 — six candidates, no independents.

The Beaches—East York federal by-election: a briefing

Beaches—East York — federal by-election, Monday, August 31, 2026. This page describes; it endorses no one and rates no one, and every candidate on it is treated the same way, by the same method. The practical page carries both east-end races side by side; the parallel briefing is the Scarborough Southwest provincial briefing (September 3).

The race and how it came to be

Nate Erskine-Smith, the Liberal who represented Beaches—East York from 2015, was re-elected on April 28, 2025 with 39,804 votes — 67.7 per cent, the riding's largest-ever share. In February 2026 he announced he was exploring a bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership and sought that party's provincial nomination in Scarborough Southwest; he lost the nomination on May 9, 2026, appealed alleging irregularities, and the party's arbitration committee dismissed the appeal on May 24. His resignation from the House of Commons took effect July 7, 2026, and Elections Canada announced the seat vacant on July 8. (Elections Canada — past results, Beaches—East York; CTV News — Erskine-Smith to resign federal seat; Wikipedia — 2026 Beaches—East York federal by-election (and the reporting it cites); Beach Metro Community News, August 13, 2026)

Prime Minister Mark Carney called the by-election on July 24, 2026, setting August 31 as election day — one of three federal by-elections held that day, alongside Chicoutimi—Le Fjord in Quebec and North Vancouver—Capilano in British Columbia. (Wikipedia — 2026 Beaches—East York federal by-election (and the reporting it cites); Beach Metro Community News, August 13, 2026)

The Liberal riding association chose its candidate at a nomination meeting on July 18, 2026 — a short contest announced roughly a week earlier. Tanveer Shahnawaz won it; 869 votes were cast. Journalist Steve Paikin, reporting a leak of the final tally, described a 13-vote margin over the second-place contestant, environmental lawyer Claire Seaborn; the party itself has not published the count, so treat the margin as reported rather than official. Two earlier entrants — John Tory Jr. and Marc Hull-Jacquin — had withdrawn before the vote, each saying publicly that the early nomination date left no time to campaign. (TVO Today — Steve Paikin analysis, July 28, 2026; Beach Metro Community News, July 13, 2026; Wikipedia — 2026 Beaches—East York federal by-election (and the reporting it cites))

The field is final. Elections Canada issued the confirmed list of candidates on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 — six candidates, no independents. New rules under Bill C-25 applied to this by-election: a candidate needed signatures from 100 electors, each elector could consent to only one candidate, and an official agent could support only one candidate per district. (Elections Canada — confirmed candidates, Beaches—East York; Elections Canada — by-election FAQ; Beach Metro Community News, August 13, 2026)

All-candidates debate

Wednesday, August 19, 6:30–8:30 p.m. — all-candidates debate at Calvary Baptist Church, 72 Main Street, organised by Daily Bread Food Bank with the church and moderated by Community Centre 55’s Reza Khoshdel. As of August 12, the New Democratic, Green and Liberal candidates had confirmed they would attend; the organisers’ attendance list may change.

Reported by Beach Metro Community News, August 12, 2026.

The riding

Electoral district 35007 covers 17 square kilometres between Coxwell Avenue in the west, the Don River and Sunrise Avenue in the north, Victoria Park Avenue in the east and Lake Ontario in the south. Its population was 109,359 at the 2021 census, with 82,102 electors on the preliminary lists for this by-election. Its neighbourhoods include The Beaches, the Upper Beaches, the East Danforth, O'Connor–Parkview and part of old East York — plus Crescent Town at Victoria Park and Danforth, a dense high-rise neighbourhood built around Victoria Park subway station, inside the city neighbourhood now called Taylor-Massey, home to a significant Bangladeshi-Canadian community. (Elections Canada — riding profile, Beaches—East York; Wikipedia — Beaches—East York (federal electoral district); Wikipedia — Crescent Town)

By the 2021 census, 55.8 per cent of the riding's households own their home and 44.2 per cent rent; median individual income was $44,000 in 2020. English is the language most spoken at home (85.5 per cent), with Bengali the largest other home language (2.1 per cent). These figures come from the census as tabulated by the two aggregators linked here, not from a fresh Statistics Canada pull. (338Canada — Beaches—East York (demographic panel, StatCan 2021); Wikipedia — Beaches—East York (federal electoral district))

The seat's history: New Democrat 1988–93 (as Beaches—Woodbine), Liberal 1993–2011, New Democrat 2011–15, Liberal 2015–2026. Turnout in the last four general elections here: 71.99 per cent (2015), 70.16 per cent (2019), 64.91 per cent (2021), 71.94 per cent (2025). (Wikipedia — Beaches—East York (federal electoral district), citing Elections Canada)

2025 general election (April 28, 2025) — official results

CandidatePartyVotes%
Nate Erskine-SmithLiberal39,80467.7
Jocelyne PoirierConservative13,83023.5
Shannon DevineNDP4,0276.9
Jack PenningsGreen7481.3
Diane JosephIndependent1610.3
Elizabeth RowleyCommunist1460.2
Steve RutchinskiMarxist-Leninist390.1

Valid ballots 58,755; rejected 311; total cast 59,066; turnout 71.94 per cent of 82,102 eligible. 2025 was the first election here in which the Conservative candidate placed second. Source: Elections Canada — past results, Beaches—East York.

2021 general election

CandidatePartyVotes%
Nathaniel Erskine-SmithLiberal28,91956.58
Alejandra Ruiz VargasNDP11,51322.52
Lisa RobinsonConservative7,33614.35
Radu RautescuPeople's1,6133.16
Reuben Anthony DeBoerGreen1,3882.72
Karen Lee WildeIndependent1660.32
Jennifer MoxonCommunist1310.26
Philip FernandezMarxist–Leninist500.10

Turnout 64.91 per cent (51,456 of 79,273). The Conservative candidate was dropped by her party after ballots were printed but before election day. The 2021 race was fought on the pre-2023 boundaries; the changes appear minimal but were not independently mapped. Source: Wikipedia — Beaches—East York (federal electoral district), citing Elections Canada.

The candidates

6

Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname. Every candidate is presented by the identical method: who they are, from their own published materials or the reporting linked beside each fact; previous candidacies, from official results; one official link, chosen the same way for everyone (their own campaign website if they have published one, otherwise their party’s page for them, otherwise the party announcement naming them — and “no official page found” where none exists); and what they have published, quoted verbatim with its source and access date — with no platform found stated plainly, as a fact about the public record on the day it was read, where that is true.

Shannon Devine — New Democratic Party

Who they are. Labour communications professional; lives in Toronto's east end with her wife and two daughters. Her site states she "has spent the last 20 years professionally advocating for rights of working people," including as communications director for the CAW/Unifor, executive director of the Ontario Federation of Labour, head of the United Steelworkers' national communications and political action department, and executive director of the Toronto and York Region Labour Council. (shannondevine.ca — About, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. NDP candidate in this riding in the 2025 general election — 4,027 votes, 6.9 per cent — with campaign roles here since 2015. Announced as the by-election candidate on July 30, 2026. (Elections Canada — past results, Beaches—East York, accessed August 14, 2026; Wikipedia — 2026 Beaches—East York federal by-election, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. shannondevine.ca (Candidate website)

What they have published. Her homepage carries a set of commitments, quoted in full below. No standalone riding-specific platform document is published on her site beyond these homepage commitments (as of August 14, 2026).

If I have the honour of representing you in Parliament, I commit to:

  • Freely speaking out on federal decisions that impact Beaches—East York and Toronto. As an NDP candidate I can't (and won't) be silenced by a top-down Carney government.
  • Advocating for the return of climate and environmental protections.
  • Ensuring the Liberals keep their word on Billy Bishop Airport, instead of making more backroom deals with Doug Ford.
  • Firmly opposing new pipeline projects.
  • Calling for diplomatic and economic solutions to end Canada's complicity in the genocide in Palestine.
  • Fighting hard for the things our community needs: Affordable rent and housing; Bringing down costs on groceries, prescriptions and other essentials; More good jobs; Affordable child care; Taking my direction from you.

— shannondevine.ca (homepage), accessed August 14, 2026

“It turns out the Mark Carney government is more conservative than many actual Conservative governments, leaving many feeling betrayed while the cost of living soars.”

— shannondevine.ca (homepage), accessed August 14, 2026

Michel Lachance — People's Party of Canada

Who they are. His candidate profile on the national party site states: "Michel Lachance is a lifelong resident of Toronto's east end, born in the Beaches and proud to still call the community home. A small business owner, licensed financial professional, and founding member of the People's Party of Canada." It says he has owned and operated MJL Electronics and Computers for more than a decade and later became licensed in securities and insurance. (People's Party of Canada — candidate profile, Michel Lachance, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found in this riding's 2015–2025 results; the party ran different candidates here in 2019 and 2021. Announced July 31, 2026. (Wikipedia — 2026 Beaches—East York federal by-election, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. peoplespartyofcanada.ca (Party candidate page)

What they have published. No riding-specific platform is published (as of August 14, 2026). His candidate page links the party's national policy set and the full national platform document; his stated case for running, from the same page, is quoted below.

“Michel is running because he's had enough of career politicians putting government first and Canadians second. He believes in lower taxes, smaller government, personal responsibility, and protecting the freedoms that made Canada one of the greatest countries in the world.”

— People's Party of Canada — candidate profile, Michel Lachance, accessed August 14, 2026

Bruce Livesey — Green Party of Canada

Who they are. Investigative journalist and former TTC bus driver. The party's nomination release states he "spent more than 40 years working as an investigative reporter, television and radio producer, newspaper and magazine writer and bestselling author," including six years as associate producer at CBC's The Fifth Estate; he is the author of Thieves of Bay Street. Born in Vancouver, raised in Fredericton, in Toronto since 1982. (Green Party of Canada — nomination release, July 30, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found. Chosen after a nomination contest; announced July 30, 2026. (Green Party of Canada — nomination release, July 30, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. greenparty.ca (Party announcement)

What they have published. His priorities are set out in the party's nomination release, quoted below. No standalone platform document beyond this release was found (as of August 14, 2026).

“Affordability for working Canadians will be at the centre of Livesey's campaign. His priorities include securing free public transit, expanding social and cooperative housing to lower rents, helping households and businesses reduce their energy bills and supporting community-owned, nonprofit grocery stores.”

— Green Party of Canada — nomination release, July 30, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026

“People are paying too much for housing, transportation, food and energy while wealthy corporations report record profits... Governments have the power to lower everyday costs by taxing the oil and gas industry's excess profits and investing that money in the public services people rely on.”

— Green Party of Canada — nomination release, July 30, 2026 (his own words), accessed August 14, 2026

Tanveer Shahnawaz — Liberal Party of Canada

Who they are. His campaign biography states: "For nearly a decade, Tanveer has worked to bring the priorities of people across the riding to Ottawa. He most recently served as constituency office manager for Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith and co-chair of the Taylor-Massey & Oakridge Community Response Team." Beach Metro reports that he grew up in the Crescent Town neighbourhood. (tanveer.liberal.ca — biography, accessed August 14, 2026; Beach Metro Community News, August 4, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found. Won the July 18, 2026 Liberal nomination (see the race section above). (TVO Today — Steve Paikin analysis, July 28, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. tanveer.liberal.ca (Candidate website)

What they have published. His campaign site's operative statement is quoted below. No riding-specific platform document beyond this statement is published on the site (as of August 14, 2026); the campaign runs on the national Liberal program plus the local-service record described in his biography.

“As the next Member of Parliament for Beaches—East York, Tanveer will work tirelessly with Mark Carney's new Liberal team to bring down costs, grow the local economy, keep our community safe, and empower people across Beaches—East York with more opportunities to get ahead.”

— tanveer.liberal.ca (homepage), accessed August 14, 2026

Jim Syrbos — Conservative Party of Canada

Who they are. Restaurateur and coffee-shop co-owner. Beach Metro describes him as "a longtime business owner in the community" whose family built the Square Boy restaurant on Danforth Avenue, and as co-owner of the East Toronto Coffee Co. on Oak Street. A spelling note, stated as fact: Elections Canada's confirmed list spells the surname Syrbos; some local reporting has spelled it Sybros. This page follows Elections Canada. (Beach Metro Community News, August 4, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026; Elections Canada — confirmed candidates, Beaches—East York, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found. (Elections Canada — past results, Beaches—East York, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. No official page found — the same precedence rule was applied to every candidate (own website, then party page, then party announcement).

What they have published. No published platform document or candidate website was found (as of August 14, 2026): his Elections Canada listing carries no website, and the local party association page carries no candidate content beyond the association president's name. This is a fact about the public record on the day it was read, not a judgment.

Cameron Thomas — Canadian Future Party

Who they are. Communications strategist, and chief of staff and press secretary of the Canadian Future Party, founded in 2024. His candidate page states: "Seventeen years ago, Cameron Thomas moved to Beaches-East York... He's spent that whole stretch renting in the same building right here in the riding," and that "by day he is a communications strategist" with decades of experience advising executives and political leaders; it also records six years on the board of Margaret's Housing and Community Services. (Canadian Future Party — candidate page, Cameron Thomas, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found. His campaign states it was the first confirmed on this by-election ballot. (Canadian Future Party — housing release, August 6, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. thecanadianfutureparty.ca (Party candidate page)

What they have published. The campaign is publishing its program in planks. The first, on housing, was released August 6, 2026 and is quoted below; a second release, on free votes and the independence of MPs, followed on August 12 (noted when the campaign's releases were re-read on August 15, 2026); the campaign has announced further planks — health care, tax reform and public safety — for release.

“I've spent seventeen years in the same submarket rental unit in this riding. Affordable housing isn't an abstraction to me, it's my address.”

— Canadian Future Party — housing release, August 6, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026

The housing plan's two operative planks, as released:

  • Make sure Build Canada Homes reaches every riding, not just the ones already in the pipeline
  • Expand and speed up funding for non-profit and co-op housing, including buying up existing buildings before investors do

— Canadian Future Party — housing release, August 6, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026

Also on the record: Canadian Future Party — free-votes release, August 12, 2026.

Polling

No riding-level poll of this by-election had been published as of August 14, 2026. That is a statement about the public record, not an estimate: the search behind it covered the firms that publish riding polls and the aggregators that track them.

What does exist is a model projection, which is not a poll. 338Canada's seat model — its own page describes it as "a projection based on polls," derived from national and regional surveys with no riding poll as input — rated the seat "LPC safe" as of its August 9, 2026 update: Liberal 61 ± 7, NDP 18 ± 6, Conservative 16 ± 5, Green 3 ± 3, People's Party 0 ± 1. A projection reports what a model expects from wider patterns; it does not measure anything specific to this by-election campaign. (338Canada — Beaches—East York projection)

For national context only: Nanos Research's rolling federal tracking ending August 7, 2026 reported Liberals 45.6 per cent, Conservatives 29.1, NDP 12.9; a Léger poll fielded August 1–3, 2026 reported Liberals 46, Conservatives 34, NDP 8. These are national figures, not riding figures, and our record of both comes from the firms' own published summaries rather than fetched full reports, so sample sizes are not recorded here. (Nanos Research — weekly tracking summary; Léger — federal polling, August 2026)

How to vote

You are electing one Member of Parliament. Polls are open 9:30 a.m. – 9:30 p.m. on Monday, August 31, 2026. Every date, address and rule below was read from the election authority’s own pages on August 14, 2026.

Who can vote, and what to bring

A Canadian citizen, 18 or older on election day, who has lived in the riding since July 26, 2026, and can prove identity and address.

Find your polling station and check your registration: Voter Information Service (by postal code) · Online voter registration.

Mobile polls visit most seniors’ and long-term-care residences. Electors with disabilities can request home voting by contacting the local office before August 25, 6 p.m.

The practical page carries the same voting information for both east-end races side by side.

Sources

Everything cited on this page, in one list. Each source was accessed on August 14, 2026 except where a different date is shown beside it above.

What this page is and is not

It is the public render of our research briefing, built from the sources linked on this page and nothing else. It endorses no one and rates no one; every candidate is treated the same way, by the same method. Where a candidate has published little or nothing, the page says so plainly — that is a fact about the public record on the day it was read, not a criticism: by-elections are short and campaigns publish on their own schedule, and this page gets re-read and corrected as the record changes. We are not a registered third party under the Canada Elections Act or Ontario’s Election Finances Act, and no money has been spent promoting this page or any candidate; it is published as commentary and research, which both statutes distinguish from election advertising. If something here is wrong or out of date, tell us through the Harvest and it gets fixed.