What this is. The public render of our research briefing for this by-election: how the seat came open, the riding, every candidate in their own published words, the survey record, and how to vote. Every fact was read from the sources linked beside it on August 14, 2026. The ballot is not final yet. The names below are the candidates registered as of August 14, 2026, from party announcements and local reporting. Nominations close August 20, 2026 at 2 p.m., and Elections Ontario publishes the official list only after that — so this list can still grow, and a name here is not confirmed on the ballot until Elections Ontario says so.

The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election: a briefing

Scarborough Southwest — provincial by-election, Thursday, September 3, 2026. This page describes; it endorses no one and rates no one, and every candidate on it is treated the same way, by the same method. The practical page carries both east-end races side by side; the parallel briefing is the Beaches—East York federal briefing (August 31).

The race and how it came to be

This vacancy began with a different one. On February 2, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Bill Blair — the Liberal MP for the overlapping federal riding of Scarborough Southwest since 2015 — would resign his seat to become Canada's High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. The next day, February 3, the federal Liberals announced Doly Begum — the NDP MPP for provincial Scarborough Southwest since 2018 and deputy leader of the Ontario NDP — as their federal candidate; she resigned her provincial seat and her provincial party membership the same day. Begum won the federal by-election on April 13, 2026 with 20,121 votes (69.60 per cent), on a turnout of 33.80 per cent. (Wikipedia — 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election (and the reporting it cites); Wikipedia — 2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election, citing Elections Canada; Global News, February 3, 2026)

The provincial seat then sat vacant from February 3. The writ was issued on Wednesday, August 5, 2026 — CBC reported that this was the last day Premier Doug Ford could call the by-election under the Election Act — with election day set for Thursday, September 3. Two other provincial by-elections run the same day: York–Simcoe and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek. (CBC News, August 5, 2026; Elections Ontario — by-elections release, August 5, 2026)

How the reported candidates were chosen, in the order the choices happened. The NDP riding association elected Fatima Shaban at a nomination meeting on April 28, 2026. The Ontario Liberals held an open nomination on May 9, 2026 — a preferential ballot, over 1,000 votes cast — at which Ahsanul Hafiz defeated sitting Beaches—East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith on the third ballot, 718 to 699. Erskine-Smith appealed on May 12, alleging irregularities; the party's three-person arbitration committee dismissed the appeal on May 24, finding a 34-ballot counting discrepancy to be a technical administrative error and no irregularity that compromised the result. The Progressive Conservatives announced Dr. Noor Tarun on July 10, "selected by local Ontario PC Party members." The Greens announced Mark Bekkering, their 2025 candidate here, on July 14. The New Blue Party announced Chris Rees on July 18. Gord Elliott (Ontario Party) and Michael Perdelwitz (independent, as reported) were reported registered by Beach Metro on August 11; no party announcement was located for either. (Ontario NDP — nomination release, April 29, 2026; Beach Metro Community News, May 9, 2026; The Globe and Mail, May 24, 2026; PC Party of Ontario — candidate announcement, July 10, 2026; Beach Metro Community News, July 14, 2026; New Blue Party of Ontario — candidates newsletter, July 18, 2026; Beach Metro Community News, August 11, 2026)

All-candidates debate

Tuesday, August 18, 6:30–8 p.m. — all-candidates debate at West Scarborough Neighbourhood Community Centre, 313 Pharmacy Avenue, co-hosted by Daily Bread Food Bank, Scarborough United Neighbourhoods and South Asian Women’s and Immigrants’ Services, and moderated by Community Centre 55’s Reza Khoshdel. As of August 11, the Liberal and Green candidates had confirmed they would attend and the Progressive Conservative candidate had declined; the organisers’ attendance list may change.

Reported by Beach Metro Community News, August 11, 2026.

The riding

The riding runs from Victoria Park Avenue in the west to Markham Road in the east, and from Eglinton Avenue in the north to Lake Ontario in the south. Since 2018 the provincial riding and the city's Ward 20 have shared these borders exactly. Its neighbourhoods include Birch Cliff, Cliffside, Cliffcrest, Oakridge, Kennedy Park, Clairlea, parts of Scarborough Village, and the Golden Mile; ward-level listings add Birch Cliff Heights, Fallingbrook, Hunt Club and Scarborough Junction. (Wikipedia — Scarborough Southwest (provincial electoral district); Wikipedia — Ward 20 Scarborough Southwest)

The seat was created for the 1999 election. Its members: Dan Newman (Progressive Conservative) 1999–2003, Lorenzo Berardinetti (Liberal) 2003–2018, Doly Begum (NDP) 2018–2026 — all three major parties within 25 years. In the overlapping federal riding, the April 2026 federal by-election drew a turnout of 33.80 per cent. (Wikipedia — Scarborough Southwest (provincial electoral district); Wikipedia — 2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election, citing Elections Canada)

Population was 111,194 at the 2021 census (Ward 20 tabulation; a City summary in circulation gives 110,095 — two different tabulations, noted rather than resolved). Figures reported from the City's ward profile by secondary summaries — which our research could confirm only through those summaries, so treat them as approximate: median household income about $84,000 (2020), 45.8 per cent of residents immigrants, 61.4 per cent members of visible-minority groups, the largest being South Asian (24.7 per cent) and Black (12.3 per cent). Landmarks of daily life that recur in this campaign's published materials: the Scarborough Health Network hospital sites, the Kingston Road corridor, the Scarborough Bluffs, and the GO and TTC corridors, with the Scarborough Subway Extension under construction. (Wikipedia — Ward 20 Scarborough Southwest, citing Statistics Canada 2021; City of Toronto — Ward 20 profile (2021 census))

2025 general election (February 27, 2025) — official tabulation

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Doly Begum	NDP	14,557	42.89
Addie Dramola	PC	10,400	30.65
Qadira Jackson	Liberal	7,786	22.94
Mark Bekkering	Green	1,194	3.52

Turnout 34,172 of 81,434 eligible — 41.96 per cent. Source: Elections Ontario — official tabulation, Scarborough Southwest (2025).

2022 general election

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Doly Begum	NDP	16,842	47.68
Bret Snider	PC	9,750	27.60
Lisa Patel	Liberal	6,556	18.56
Cara Brideau	Green	1,251	3.54
Peter Naus	New Blue	383	1.08
Barbara Everatt	Ontario Party	320	0.91
James McNair	None of the Above	114	0.32
Michelle Parsons	Independent	110	0.31

Turnout 35,573 of 79,624 eligible — 44.34 per cent. Source: Wikipedia — Scarborough Southwest (provincial electoral district), citing Elections Ontario.

The candidates

Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname. Every candidate is presented by the identical method: who they are, from their own published materials or the reporting linked beside each fact; previous candidacies, from official results; one official link, chosen the same way for everyone (their own campaign website if they have published one, otherwise their party’s page for them, otherwise the party announcement naming them — and “no official page found” where none exists); and what they have published, quoted verbatim with its source and access date — with no platform found stated plainly, as a fact about the public record on the day it was read, where that is true.

Mark Bekkering — Green Party of Ontario

Who they are. The party's nomination release describes him as "a committed community leader with over 30 years of public service experience," who, working with the City of Toronto, "spearheaded transformative initiatives including TransformTO, the Home Energy Loan Program, and PollinateTo," with a graduate degree in geography from Queen's University and over 25 years living in Scarborough Southwest. (Green Party of Ontario — nomination release, January 23, 2025, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. Green candidate in this riding in the 2025 general election — 1,194 votes, 3.52 per cent. Announced as the by-election candidate on July 14, 2026. (Wikipedia — Scarborough Southwest (provincial electoral district), citing Elections Ontario, accessed August 14, 2026; Beach Metro Community News, July 14, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. gpo.ca (Party riding page)

What they have published. No standalone published by-election platform was found on the party's riding page or in searches (as of August 14, 2026). His stated case for running, as quoted by Beach Metro, is below.

“The Ford government has let the people of Scarborough down. Families in my community are struggling to make rent, buy groceries and save for the future. Every year, we feel the effects of climate change get worse. Our community needs a government that's going to fight for more affordable homes, better transit and a sustainable future.”

— Beach Metro Community News, July 14, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026

Gord Elliott — Ontario Party

Who they are. No public biographical information could be found (as of August 14, 2026). His registration was reported by Beach Metro on August 11, 2026; searches for a biography, occupation or campaign presence surfaced nothing relevant. If the official Elections Ontario list published after August 20 carries more, this page gets updated. (Beach Metro Community News, August 11, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found. (Beach Metro Community News, August 11, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. No official page found — the same precedence rule was applied to every candidate (own website, then party page, then party announcement).

What they have published. No published platform of any kind was found (as of August 14, 2026). This is a fact about the public record on the day it was read, not a judgment.

Ahsanul Hafiz — Ontario Liberal Party

Who they are. His campaign site states: "When he first arrived in Canada as an international student nearly 25 years ago, he landed in Scarborough" and that today he lives here again with his wife and children; it describes his path "from delivering pizzas while studying at the University of Windsor to becoming a successful business owner," now operating 30 Domino's Pizza stores across Ontario. The site is published in six languages: English, Bengali, Tamil, Chinese, Hindi and Tagalog. (ahsanulhafiz.ca, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found for elected office; he has served as vice-chair of the Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario). Won the Ontario Liberal nomination on May 9, 2026 (see the race section above). (ahsanulhafiz.ca, accessed August 14, 2026; Ontario Liberal Party — nomination release, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. ahsanulhafiz.ca (Candidate website)

What they have published. His site carries the slogan "A Stronger Scarborough. A Fairer Ontario." and seven priorities, quoted in full below from its "Priorities Shaped by Experience" section (as of August 14, 2026).

The seven priorities, as published:

Affordability — Helping families manage the cost of living and strengthening community supports.
Fix Youth Unemployment — Ensuring young people can get that critical first job that builds responsibility and opportunity.
Invest in Education — Strong schools and accessible education that open doors.
Healthcare — Expanding access to quality public healthcare and reducing wait times.
Community Safety — Building safer neighborhoods through investment and community programs.
Lead with Integrity — Public service guided by honesty, honour, and trust.
Enjoy Our Community — Building neighbourhoods where people can support one another and enjoy the life they worked hard to build.

— ahsanulhafiz.ca — Priorities Shaped by Experience, accessed August 14, 2026

“I'm honoured to have the support of Scarborough–Southwest Liberals and I'm ready to get to work. This community deserves a strong voice at Queen's Park that understands the challenges people are facing and is focused on delivering real results for local families.”

— Ontario Liberal Party — nomination release, accessed August 14, 2026

Michael Perdelwitz — independent (as reported)

Who they are. No public biographical information could be found (as of August 14, 2026). His registration was reported by Beach Metro on August 11, 2026, whose wording was "of the Independent Party"; Ontario has no registered party of that name, so this page reads it as an independent candidacy — the official Elections Ontario list published after August 20 will settle the ballot designation. (Beach Metro Community News, August 11, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found. (Beach Metro Community News, August 11, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. No official page found — the same precedence rule was applied to every candidate (own website, then party page, then party announcement).

What they have published. No published platform of any kind was found (as of August 14, 2026). This is a fact about the public record on the day it was read, not a judgment.

Chris Rees — New Blue Party of Ontario

Who they are. The party's announcement states: "Chris Rees brings over 32 years of experience in teaching, business, and accounting as a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA). He earned his BA in Economics from the University of Guelph and has roots in Northern Ontario and Toronto." (New Blue Party of Ontario — candidates newsletter, July 18, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. None found. (New Blue Party of Ontario — candidates newsletter, July 18, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. newblueontario.com (Party announcement)

What they have published. His campaign pillars are set out in the party's announcement, quoted below. No further riding-specific platform document was found (as of August 14, 2026).

“Key pillars of his campaign include opposing 'Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion' (DEI) in the public sector, protecting students from radical school curricula, advocating for a cut to the HST and elimination of Doug Ford's industrial carbon tax, and challenging the dangerous implications of Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD).”

— New Blue Party of Ontario — candidates newsletter, July 18, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026

Fatima Shaban — Ontario NDP

Who they are. Her campaign site states: "Fatima Shaban has lived in Scarborough Southwest most of her life. She grew up here. She went to school here and she's raising her family here," and that "today Fatima does financial work in the non-profit sector, auditing estates." It records that she is treasurer of her local school council and organized her building's tenants against an above-guideline rent increase; the party's release calls her "a parent, tenant organizer, and a champion for working class families in Scarborough." (votefatima.ca, accessed August 14, 2026; Ontario NDP — nomination release, April 29, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. Federal NDP candidate in the overlapping federal riding twice — 2,730 votes (5.01 per cent) in the 2025 general election and 1,714 votes (5.92 per cent) in the April 2026 federal by-election. Elected as the provincial nominee on April 28, 2026. (Wikipedia — 2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election, citing Elections Canada, accessed August 14, 2026; Ontario NDP — nomination release, April 29, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. votefatima.ca (Candidate website)

What they have published. Her site publishes "Our Plan for Scarborough Southwest," framed as "Seven issues. One plan. Built from what people in Scarborough Southwest told us at the door." Its summary and headline planks are quoted below, as fetched from the site on August 14, 2026. The plan also carries community-safety details (a properly audited VIN registry, returning driver testing to the Ministry of Transportation, a funded school-violence response) and climate planks (a legislated net-zero-by-2050 target and a climate adaptation plan naming the Bluffs).

“Fatima Shaban and Ontario's New Democrats have a plan to fix our hospitals, bring down the cost of groceries and rent, fund the transit our neighbourhoods were promised, and make our streets and schools safer.”

— votefatima.ca — Our Plan for Scarborough Southwest, accessed August 14, 2026

Headline planks, as published:

Fix our hospitals by hiring more doctors and nurses — Staffed beds at Scarborough Health Network, safe nurse-to-patient ratios, and a faster path to practice for internationally trained doctors.
Lower grocery costs by scrapping taxes on food — Taking the tax off every food item, in every size, at every store.
Ban predatory pricing to lower grocery costs — No more surveillance pricing that charges you more based on your phone, your postal code, or your battery level.
Real rent control on every unit
Cut the delays at the Landlord and Tenant Board.
Reverse cuts to schools and save OSAP — Smaller classes, repaired schools, and student aid that doesn't leave families in debt.
Fund the Scarborough East LRT — The line Scarborough was promised, plus a real provincial share of what it costs to run the TTC.
Cracking down on car theft, making our roads safer, and an emergency plan to end violence in our schools.

— votefatima.ca — Our Plan for Scarborough Southwest, accessed August 14, 2026

Dr. Noor Tarun — Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario

Who they are. The party's announcement states: "A dedicated family physician and respected community leader, Dr. Tarun has called Scarborough home for more than two decades. He owns and operates six medical clinics and a specialist centre across the Greater Toronto Area, providing care to hundreds of patients every day." (PC Party of Ontario — candidate announcement, July 10, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026)

Previous candidacies. Federal Conservative candidate in the overlapping federal riding in the April 2025 general election, on the ballot as "Asm Tarun" — 16,652 votes, 30.57 per cent, second place. (Wikipedia — 2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election, citing Elections Canada, accessed August 14, 2026)

Official page. scarboroughsouthwest.ontariopc.ca (Party candidate page)

What they have published. No standalone published personal platform was found (as of August 14, 2026): his campaign page carries party news items rather than a local platform document. His stated case for running, from the party's announcement, is below.

“As a family doctor and small business owner, I've spent my career solving problems, building organizations and delivering results. I'm ready to bring that experience to Doug Ford's Ontario PC team and help grow our economy, lower costs for families and keep our communities safe.”

— PC Party of Ontario — candidate announcement, July 10, 2026, accessed August 14, 2026

Polling

One riding poll exists, and it is old. Mainstreet Research surveyed 464 adults in Scarborough Southwest by live-agent telephone (landline and cell) between February 20 and 22, 2026 — margin of error ±4.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. Among decided voters, with party leaders named and no candidates, it reported: Ontario Liberal 43 per cent, Progressive Conservative 29, NDP 19, Green 4, another candidate 5. It was fielded before any candidate in this race had been nominated and more than five months before the writ, and it also tested a hypothetical named-candidate scenario built around a person who did not, in the end, become a candidate. Treat it as a February snapshot, not a description of today's race. (Mainstreet Research — Scarborough Southwest public report (PDF, methodology and tables); Mainstreet Research — release page)

No public riding poll fielded since the writ was issued on August 5 had been published as of August 14, 2026.

For provincial context only: Liaison Strategies' Ontario tracker, fielded July 20–21, 2026 (n = 1,000, IVR landline and cell, margin of error ±3.1 per cent), reported decided-and-leaning support of Ontario Liberal 38 per cent, Progressive Conservative 33, NDP 24. Province-wide numbers are not riding numbers. (Liaison Strategies — Ontario tracker release, July 24, 2026)

One publication rule applies to this race: an election survey not previously published may not be published on election day, September 3, from 12:01 a.m. until the polls close. (Elections Ontario — by-elections release, August 5, 2026)

How to vote

You are electing one Member of Provincial Parliament. Polls are open 9 a.m. – 9 p.m. on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Every date, address and rule below was read from the election authority’s own pages on August 14, 2026.

Vote now, at the returning officeAny day through Wednesday, September 2 at 2685 Kingston Road, Scarborough — open Monday to Saturday 10 a.m. – 8 p.m. and Sunday noon – 5 p.m., closing at 6 p.m. on the final day.
Vote by mailApply by 6 p.m. on August 28. Your completed kit has to be received by Elections Ontario by 6 p.m. on September 3 to be counted.
Advance votingWednesday, August 26 – Friday, August 28, 10 a.m. – 8 p.m., at any advance voting location in the riding.
Election dayThursday, September 3, 9 a.m. – 9 p.m., at your assigned voting location.

Who can vote, and what to bring

A Canadian citizen, 18 or older on election day, who lives in Scarborough Southwest.

ID is required, but photo ID is not — and if you do show photo ID, your appearance does not have to match the photo;
you may show your ID on a phone or other mobile device;
if you are already on the voters list, one piece of ID showing your name is enough; if you are not, you need ID showing both your name and your current home address;
international ID and permanent resident cards are not accepted.

Find your voting location and check your registration: Voter Information Service · Online voter registration.

Assistive voting technology is available at the returning office from August 21 to September 2, and by appointment on election day.

The practical page carries the same voting information for both east-end races side by side.

Sources

Everything cited on this page, in one list. Each source was accessed on August 14, 2026 except where a different date is shown beside it above.

What this page is and is not

It is the public render of our research briefing, built from the sources linked on this page and nothing else. It endorses no one and rates no one; every candidate is treated the same way, by the same method. Where a candidate has published little or nothing, the page says so plainly — that is a fact about the public record on the day it was read, not a criticism: by-elections are short and campaigns publish on their own schedule, and this page gets re-read and corrected as the record changes. We are not a registered third party under the Canada Elections Act or Ontario’s Election Finances Act, and no money has been spent promoting this page or any candidate; it is published as commentary and research, which both statutes distinguish from election advertising. If something here is wrong or out of date, tell us through the Harvest and it gets fixed.